Feyenoord v Como: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Como or Draw 67%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Feyenoord host Como in a Champions League group match on 14 October 2026. Feyenoord sit 33rd of 36 with zero points after one game and a –4 goal difference. They sit just above Galatasaray and two places above Lille, so a win would lift them out of the bottom three and give a small boost in the fight to avoid the relegation zone. Como are much higher, 6th of 36 with three points and a +3 goal difference, level with Paris Saint-Germain above them and Manchester United below. The two sides are far apart in the table, but both need points – Feyenoord to climb out of trouble and Como to keep pressure on the teams above them.

Feyenoord arrive on a four-match winning streak. In their last eight games they have won six, drawn one and lost one, scoring 30 and conceding only 10. The most recent results are a 2-0 home win over AZ Alkmaar, a 5-0 home thrashing of Utrecht, another 5-0 home victory over FC Utrecht, a 7-0 away win at Zwolle, a 5-1 loss away to Barcelona and a 3-1 away win at Nijmegen. At home they have three wins and one draw in the last four fixtures and have kept four clean sheets in the eight-game run. Seven of those games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them. They played just four days ago, so the turnaround is short but the momentum is strong.

Como have been in good form as well, with five wins, two draws and one loss in their last eight games. Their recent scores are a 0-0 home draw with Roma, a 2-0 away loss to Frosinone, a 2-1 home win over Parma, a 4-1 home victory against RB Leipzig, a 4-1 away win at Genoa and a 2-1 away win over Napoli. On the road they have three wins, one draw and one loss in the last five trips. Across the eight games they have scored 17 and let in eight, keeping only one clean sheet and failing to score in two matches. Six of those games saw both sides on the scoresheet and five had three or more goals. They played three days ago, so they also face a short recovery period.

We back Como or a draw. The price of 1.31 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, giving us a good safety net. Both teams are likely to find the net – Feyenoord have a 77 % chance to score and a 43 % chance to score twice, while Como have an 82 % chance to score and a 50 % chance to score twice. The expected total of about three goals points to an open game with chances at both ends. Our pick should work about two-thirds of the time. It would go wrong if Feyenoord tighten up defensively and keep a clean sheet while also limiting Como to a single goal, or if the game turns very low-scoring despite the statistics. In that case the price would not pay off.