LASK v Liverpool: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 9. Both teams scored. We made Liverpool to win 65%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

LASK host Liverpool in a Champions League group match on 14 October 2026. LASK sit 27th out of 36 with no points after one game and a goal difference of minus one. Liverpool sit 15th, also on three points but with a plus one goal difference. Both teams are only a few places away from the clubs above and below them, so a win will move each side a step up the table. The numbers show Liverpool as the stronger side, but the odds suggest a close game with chances for both teams.

LASK have played eight games in total, winning four, drawing one and losing three. Their most recent results are a 2-0 loss to SK Rapid at home, a 3-3 draw with Hartberg away, a 2-1 defeat to Sturm Graz away and a 1-0 loss to AEK Athens away. Before that they beat Wolfsberger AC 3-1 away and Altach 3-0 at home. In those eight games they have scored 16 and let in 10, kept two clean sheets and failed to score in two matches. Their last three home games contain two wins and one loss, but they have gone four games without a win overall and are coming in after only three days’ rest.

Liverpool’s last eight outings give them five wins, one draw and two defeats. The most recent two games were 3-0 losses to Manchester City at home. Prior to that they earned 1-0 victories over Bournemouth away, another 1-0 win over AFC Bournemouth, a 3-1 win over Tottenham Hotspur at home and a 0-0 draw with Fulham at home. On the road they have won their last three away games. In total they have scored nine and conceded eight, kept four clean sheets and have been shut out three times. Like LASK, they also played just three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.

The two clubs have met twice before, each winning once. Those games produced an average of four goals. The most recent encounter was a 4-0 win for Liverpool at LASK on 30 November 2023. Given the history of open scoring and the current expectations of 1.0 goal for LASK and 2.5 for Liverpool, we can expect another game with chances at both ends. Both sides have shown they can score and also keep clean sheets, so an attacking contest is likely.

We back Liverpool to win. The price of 1.34 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, making it an attractive offer. Our chance of this result happening sits at 65 out of 100. For Liverpool not to come out on top, they would need to be shut out completely while LASK manage to score at least once, something that has only happened in a minority of their recent games. If Liverpool can find a goal early, their stronger numbers and recent road form should see them take the three points.