How it turned out
We projected about 4.1 goals and the game finished with 5. We made Bayern Munich to win 82%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.3 goals from Bayern Munich and 0.8 from Bodo/Glimt, so Bayern Munich come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Bodo/Glimt come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Bayern Munich to win. Bayern Munich are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.3-0.8), and we make them about 83% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 82 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.11, which works out at about 90 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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