How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Roma to win 46%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Fenerbahce and 2.0 from Roma, so Roma come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Roma come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Roma to win. Roma shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.5-2.0), and we make them about 47% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.24, which works out at about 45 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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