PSV Eindhoven v Shakhtar Donetsk: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 4.1 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made PSV Eindhoven to win 75%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

PSV Eindhoven host Shakhtar Donetsk in a Champions League group match on 10 September 2026. Both clubs sit in the middle of a 36-team table with zero points after no games have been played, so the standings are essentially a blank slate. PSV are 19th, just above Manchester United and one spot ahead of RB Leipzig. Shakhtar sit four places lower in 23rd, with Sabah FK above them and Slavia Prague below. The game offers both sides a chance to start the campaign strongly and move up the table early.

PSV come into this fixture on a superb run. In their last eight matches they have won seven and drawn one, with no defeats. Their most recent results are a 3-1 win away at Ajax, a 6-1 victory away at Utrecht, another 6-1 win at Utrecht, a 5-1 triumph at home against Groningen, a 2-1 away success over Excelsior and a 2-2 draw at home with For Sittard. That means they have five straight wins overall and have not lost in any of their last three home games, winning two and drawing one. In those eight matches PSV have scored 33 goals and let in only nine, and every game has produced three or more goals with both sides finding the net each time.

Shakhtar’s form is less consistent. Over their last eight games they have won three, drawn one and lost four. Their latest fixtures are a 2-1 away win over Karpaty, a 2-0 home defeat to Polissya Zhytomyr, a 2-1 loss away to Crystal Palace, a 3-1 home loss to the same English side, a 2-2 draw away at AZ Alkmaar and a 3-0 home win over AZ Alkmaar. On the road they have been a bit better, with two wins, one draw and one loss in their last four away outings. Across the eight games they have scored 13 and conceded 13, keeping only one clean sheet and failing to score in one match. Like PSV, most of their games have been high-scoring, with seven seeing three or more goals and both teams scoring in six of them.

When the two clubs have met before, the matches have tended to be open affairs with goals on both ends. The recent patterns for both sides reinforce that expectation – PSV’s games have always featured three or more goals and Shakhtar’s fixtures often do the same. Given PSV’s higher scoring rate and tighter defence in the same period, we anticipate another lively contest where the home side creates more chances and likely finishes ahead.

We pick PSV Eindhoven to win. The numbers suggest PSV will score about three goals while Shakhtar manage just over one, giving PSV a clear advantage. The price of 1.45 is longer than our own reading of the game, which makes it an attractive offer. We see a 75 % chance of success based on form and goal expectations. For the pick to fail, PSV would have to drop points at home or Shakhtar would need to find a way to score more than their recent average, which seems unlikely given the current shape of both teams.