Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Borussia Dortmund (Draw No Bet) 90%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.9 goals from Borussia Dortmund and 0.8 from Villarreal, so Borussia Dortmund come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Borussia Dortmund come into this on four straight wins. Villarreal come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Borussia Dortmund (Draw No Bet). Borussia Dortmund are favoured here (xG 2.9-0.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Borussia Dortmund defeat beats you.

We put the chance of that landing at about 90 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.