Porto v Man City: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Man City to win 37%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from Porto and 1.4 from Man City, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Porto come into this on five straight wins. Man City come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Man City to win. Man City shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.4), and we make them about 38% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.75, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.