What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from FC Porto and 1.5 from Manchester City, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
FC Porto come into this on two straight wins. Manchester City come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FC Porto to win. FC Porto are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.5), and we make them about 44% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 4.27, which works out at about 23 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Manchester City only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 44%.
