What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from Liverpool and 1.1 from Ath Madrid, so Liverpool come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Liverpool to win. Liverpool are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.1), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.75, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Liverpool have won one of their last five.
✓Ath Madrid have won two of their last five.
✓Two of the last three meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last three meetings.
Recent meetings
17 Sept 2025Liverpool 3 - 2 Atletico Madrid
3 Nov 2021Liverpool 2 - 0 Atletico Madrid
19 Oct 2021Atletico Madrid 2 - 3 Liverpool
