What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from Liverpool and 1.1 from Villarreal, so Liverpool come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Liverpool to win. Liverpool are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.1), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Liverpool have won two of the last two meetings.
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