What to expect
We expect about 2.7 goals from Porto and 1.1 from PSV Eindhoven, so Porto come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Porto come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Porto (Draw No Bet). Porto are favoured here (xG 2.7-1.1), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Porto defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
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