What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Real Madrid and 1.1 from Inter, so Real Madrid come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Real Madrid come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Real Madrid to win. Real Madrid are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.1), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Inter a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 56%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
