How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Derby to score 1 or fewer 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Millwall and 0.9 from Derby, so Millwall come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Derby to score 1 or fewer. This is about Derby's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 78%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Millwall have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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