How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Preston to score 1 or fewer 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Stoke and 0.9 from Preston, so Stoke come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Preston to score 1 or fewer. This is about Preston's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 77%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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