Millwall v Wrexham: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Over 1.5 goals 71%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

The game looks fairly open. Millwall are the stronger side on the numbers we have, but both clubs are expected to score. With an average of 1.7 goals for Millwall and 1.1 for Wrexham, the total expected tally is close to three goals. That suggests there will be chances at both ends and the match should not be a defensive slog.

Recent results give us a clue about how the teams are feeling. Millwall have won two of their last three league games, losing only one, and that form includes both home and away fixtures. Wrexham’s recent record isn’t listed, so we can only rely on the goal expectations to see that both sides are likely to find the net. The pattern points to a game where at least a couple of goals are probable.

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals. The price on offer is 1.31, which is shorter than what we think the game is worth. We expect the total to sit around 2.7 goals, based on the 1.7-1.1 split, and two goals is enough for the bet to win. With a 71% chance of success, the price looks good for a simple goal-rich match.

For the bet to fail, the game would have to be very tight, with both sides struggling to create chances and only a single goal or a nil-nil draw. That would require a defensive surprise that isn’t hinted at by the numbers. We are fairly confident in our view and would only change it if a clear sign of a low-scoring affair appeared.