How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even but QPR have a slight edge. Our numbers give QPR about 1.7 goals and Cardiff about 1.3, so we expect just over three goals in total. That suggests the match will have some space for attacks rather than being a tight, low-scoring affair.
Cardiff have not been winning lately. In their last three league games they have drawn twice and lost once, with no victories at home or away. QPR are the stronger side on the goal expectations, so the recent lack of results for Cardiff fits the idea that they will struggle to keep the score down.
We think the best call is for more than 1.5 goals. The price of 1.22 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, so it looks attractive. With both teams able to find the net, the chance of the total going over 1.5 is high.
For the pick to fail, the match would have to turn into a very tight, defensive battle with both sides failing to score. That would be unlikely given the goal expectations we have. We are fairly confident in our view and would only change it if the game became unusually closed.
Recent results
QPR have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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