How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
West Brom head into this Championship clash as the stronger side on paper. The goal expectations are low – about 1.2 for the home team and 0.9 for Charlton – so we expect a tight, low-scoring affair rather than an open goal-fest.
Recent results underline the contrast. West Brom have lost their last two league games and have only one win in their previous three outings. Charlton, on the other hand, have taken two of their last three and look fresher coming into the match. The pattern suggests a game where the visitors will be keen to keep things tidy and the hosts will try to edge ahead, but neither side is likely to flood the net.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals. The expected total of about 2.1 goals fits nicely with a cagey encounter where chances will be scarce. The price of 1.31 matches our view of the game, and with a 74 % chance of success we feel comfortable backing this outcome.
For the pick to go wrong we would need a sudden burst of goals – perhaps a set-piece or a defensive lapse that opens the floodgates. Given the low expectations and recent form, we think that scenario is unlikely. We hold this view strongly, trusting the numbers and the defensive tone both teams are likely to adopt.
Recent results
Charlton have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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