What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Deportes Limache and 1.4 from Cobresal, so Deportes Limache come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Deportes Limache to win. Deportes Limache are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.4), and we make them about 54% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Cobresal a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 54%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
