What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Palestino and 0.7 from Universidad de Concepción, so Palestino come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Palestino to win. Palestino are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.7), and we make them about 66% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Universidad de Concepción a draw or better. At around 66% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
