What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from La Serena and 1.3 from Ñublense, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: La Serena to win. La Serena are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.3), and we make them about 37% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Ñublense to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 37%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
