How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made La Serena to win 39%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from La Serena and 1.3 from Ñublense, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: La Serena to win. La Serena are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.3), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.50, which works out at about 40 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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