How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Colo Colo to win 53%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Huachipato and 1.8 from Colo Colo, so Colo Colo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Colo Colo to win. Colo Colo shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.7), and we make them about 54% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.75, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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