What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Huachipato and 1.7 from Colo Colo, so Colo Colo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Colo Colo to win. Colo Colo shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.7), and we make them about 54% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.78, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Huachipato to spoil this. We make it about 54% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
