What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Everton CD and 1.3 from Universidad Católica, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Everton CD come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Everton CD to win. Everton CD are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.3), and we make them about 38% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.70, which works out at about 37 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Universidad Católica a draw or better. We make it about 38% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
