How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Ñublense to win 38%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Ñublense and 1.0 from Everton CD, so Ñublense come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Ñublense to win. Ñublense are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.0), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.55, which works out at about 39 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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