How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Dalian Yingbo and 1.8 from Beijing Guoan, so Beijing Guoan come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.1 goals (xG 1.4-1.8), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 79%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.19, which works out at about 84 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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