What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Dalian Yingbo and 1.8 from Beijing Guoan, so Beijing Guoan come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.2 goals between the two (xG 1.4-1.8), landing about 63% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
If one side settles for what they have, or the game turns cagey, the goals can dry up in a hurry. The price is shorter than our own read of about 63%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
