How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The match looks tight. Tianjin Jinmen Tiger are a little stronger on the numbers, with an expectation of about 1.3 goals for them and 0.9 for Qingdao West Coast. That points to a low-scoring affair, not a goal-fest. Both teams have shown they can keep things close, so we expect a cagey game.
Recent results give us a mixed picture. Tianjin have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five league games. Qingdao have been unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws. In the last five meetings between the sides, Tianjin have won twice, Qingdao none and three games ended in a draw. Those meetings have averaged 2.6 goals, and the most recent one was a 1-1 draw on 5 May.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals. The expected total of about 2.3 goals fits well with the price of 1.31, which matches our view of the game. We think clear chances will be rare, so the odds look right for a low-scoring result.
It would have to go wrong if both teams suddenly find the net many times, pushing the total above three and a half goals. A flurry of goals would be needed to break the pattern we see. We are fairly confident in our view, holding it strongly but aware that a sudden change in attacking flow would upset it.
Recent meetings
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