How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 54%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Qingdao Hainiu look a little stronger on paper, with an average of 1.7 goals a game compared with Wuhan Three Towns’ 1.3. The expected total is just under three goals, so we can picture a match that is not a defensive slog. Both sides have enough firepower to find the net, but neither looks likely to lock the other out completely. It should be a fairly open game with chances at both ends.
Looking back, the two clubs have been evenly matched in their last five meetings – each side has won twice and they have drawn once. Those games have produced an average of two goals, which is a touch below the 2.9 we expect this time. Wuhan Three Towns have been in better recent form, with two wins and two draws in their last five league outings, while Qingdao Hainiu have lost five straight. The most recent clash ended 3-1 to Qingdao, showing they can score against each other.
We think both teams will score. Each side averages more than a goal per game, and the recent head-to-head record suggests they are capable of breaking each other’s defenses. The price of 1.55 is shorter than we feel the game deserves, so it looks attractive for a bet that has a 54 % chance of succeeding.
The only way this could fail is if Qingdao’s poor run continues and they are shut out, or if Wuhan’s attack stalls completely. That would require a very tight defensive display from one side, which does not fit the numbers we have. We are fairly confident in our view, but we know a single clean-sheet could overturn it.
Recent meetings
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