How it turned out
We projected about 3.9 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even but Shanghai Shenhua have the edge. Our numbers put them at about 2.3 goals while Shandong Taishan sit around 1.6. That means both teams should find chances and the match will probably open up rather than stay tight.
Looking at recent form, Shanghai have been strong, winning four of their last five league games and coming in on two straight victories. Shandong have also been decent, with three wins in their last five but two defeats. In the last five meetings between the clubs, Shanghai have the better record with three wins, one loss and one draw. Those games have been high-scoring, averaging a little over four goals, and the most recent encounter ended 4-1 to Shandong.
Our pick is Under 4.5 goals. The price of 1.48 is longer than what we see in the match, which is why we like it. We think the total will be closer to 3.8 goals – roughly 2.1 for Shanghai and 1.6 for Shandong – so the under should hit most of the time. Our confidence is high, about 79 out of 100.
For the pick to go wrong we would need a very open game with both sides scoring heavily, pushing the total above four and a half. That would require a lot of chances and a loose defence from both teams. While it can happen, we feel the risk is low and we stand firmly behind our view.
Recent meetings
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
