How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Liaoning Tieren (Draw No Bet) 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Liaoning Tieren and 1.2 from Shenzhen Xinpengcheng, so Liaoning Tieren come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Liaoning Tieren come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Liaoning Tieren (Draw No Bet). Liaoning Tieren are favoured here (xG 1.9-1.2), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Liaoning Tieren defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed.
