Liaoning Tieren v Shenzhen Xinpengcheng: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Liaoning Tieren (Draw No Bet) 67%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.9 goals from Liaoning Tieren and 1.2 from Shenzhen Xinpengcheng, so Liaoning Tieren come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Liaoning Tieren (Draw No Bet). Liaoning Tieren are favoured here (xG 1.9-1.2), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Liaoning Tieren defeat beats you.

We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.