What to expect
I think Qingdao West Coast are the stronger side in this game, but not by much. The difference between them and Chongqing Tonglianglong is small, which suggests it will be a tight match. I expect a low-scoring game, with not many goals.
The teams' recent results in the league give us a bit more information. Qingdao West Coast have been solid at home, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games. They have not lost in their last 5 matches. Chongqing Tonglianglong, on the other hand, have struggled, with 3 straight defeats and no wins in their last 5 games.
Our pick for this game is Under 2.5 goals. I think the price of 1.82 looks good, as we believe the game will be cagey and low-scoring. We think there will be around 2.1 goals in total, which means the game will stay under 2.5 goals more often than not. This is why we have chosen this pick, as the price is longer than our own reading of the game.
I am fairly confident in our pick, with a 63 out of 100 chance of it landing. For it to go wrong, something unexpected would have to happen, like one of the teams scoring a lot of goals. But based on what we know, I think a low-scoring game is the most likely outcome, and that is why we are going with Under 2.5 goals.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. We make it about 63%: a lean, not a lock.
