How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 8. Both teams scored. We made Ajax to win 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks like a clear favourite meeting an underdog. Ajax are stronger on the numbers, with an expected 2.2 goals compared with Sion’s 1.0. That gap suggests Ajax will dominate, but the total of 3.2 goals points to chances at both ends. Expect an open contest with both teams looking to create chances.
Recent form gives us a hint of how the teams have been playing. Ajax have been fairly consistent in their last five league outings, winning three, drawing one and losing one, whether at home or away. Sion’s recent results aren’t listed, so we can only rely on the goal expectations that still put Ajax ahead. The pattern of Ajax’s steady results supports the idea that they should handle the pressure of a European tie.
Our pick is Ajax to win. We see a 72 % chance of that happening and the price of 1.40 matches our view of the game. The odds are close to what we think the match will cost, so backing Ajax looks like the cleaner play rather than chasing a higher price elsewhere.
For the pick to go wrong, Sion would need to score early and keep Ajax from finding the net, or Ajax would have to miss several clear chances. That would be a big shift from the expected goal picture. We feel fairly strong about our view, but we know football can be unpredictable.
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