How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made KuPS (Draw No Bet) 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
KuPS look the stronger side on paper. Our goal expectations give them about 1.7 goals while Shamrock Rovers are set at 0.9. That makes the match feel a bit open, but KuPS have the edge. The total goal estimate is just under three, so we can expect a few chances from both teams but not a flood of goals.
Recent results show KuPS have just lost two games in a row, while Shamrock Rovers have drawn their last two. In their last five league outings KuPS have won two, drawn one and lost two, whereas the Irish side has only one win, three draws and one loss. The pattern suggests KuPS are a bit more volatile, but the Rovers have struggled to turn draws into wins. The numbers still point to KuPS having the better chance of taking the points.
We pick KuPS on a draw-no-bet basis. The price of 1.40 matches our view of the game, and it means we only lose if KuPS lose outright. With a 72 % chance of success in our eyes, the pick feels solid and the price looks good.
For us to be wrong, KuPS would need to be caught out and lose, or the game end level and we miss the chance to profit. A loss for KuPS would be a surprise given their higher goal expectation, but it is not impossible. Our confidence is strong, though we acknowledge a defeat would flip the result.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
