How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Maccabi Tel Aviv (Draw No Bet) 73%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
Maccabi Tel Aviv look the stronger side in this UEFA Conference League tie. Our goal expectations are 2.1 for the home team and 1.0 for Lugano, which means we expect about three goals in total. The numbers suggest an open game with chances for both sides, but Tel Aviv should have the edge.
Looking at recent league form, Tel Aviv have won three of their last five matches, losing the other two, while Lugano have taken two wins, one draw and two defeats in the same span. Both teams have been a bit inconsistent, but Tel Aviv’s three victories give them a slight edge over Lugano’s mixed results. The pattern points to Tel Aviv being the more likely side to finish ahead.
Our pick is Maccabi Tel Aviv on a draw-no-bet. The price of 1.65 is longer than what we feel the game is worth, which is why we like it. With a 78 % chance of success in our view, the bet only loses if Tel Aviv are beaten outright, because a draw would return the stake.
For the pick to go wrong, Tel Aviv would have to be outscored or the match end level and the draw-no-bet not be offered. A defensive collapse or a very tight defensive display from Lugano could cause that. We are fairly confident in our view, but we acknowledge the game could stay close.
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