What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Qarabag and 1.5 from Twente, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Qarabag come into this on three straight defeats. Twente come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Qarabag to win. Qarabag are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.5), and we make them about 43% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.42, which works out at about 29 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Twente a draw or better. We only make this about 43%, so it's far from a lock.
