What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Austria Vienna and 1.6 from SC Braga, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: SC Braga to win. SC Braga shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.6), and we make them about 43% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.90, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Austria Vienna to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 44%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
