How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Borac Banja Luka to win 35%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Borac Banja Luka look a little stronger than Vikingur Reykjavik on the numbers. Both teams are expected to score around one goal each, so the match should be tight and low-scoring. With almost nothing separating them in the goal expectations, we expect a close game rather than an open free-for-all.
In the last five league games Borac have not lost, winning three and drawing two, and they come in on two straight wins. Vikingur have also won three of their last five, but they have been beaten twice. The two clubs have split their recent head-to-head meetings, each winning once, and those games have averaged three goals. The most recent encounter ended 3-1 to Borac at Vikingur’s ground, which hints they can find the net away from home.
Our pick is Borac Banja Luka to win. We think they have about a 37 % chance of coming out on top. The price of 2.02 is shorter than our own reading of the game, so the price looks good for a side we see as the stronger team. Backing Borac to win feels cleaner than looking for a bigger payout elsewhere.
It could go wrong if Vikingur manage to tighten up defensively and keep a clean sheet, or if the game opens up and more than two goals are scored. In that case the tight expectation would be broken and Borac might slip up. We still hold our view fairly strongly, but we know a single goal can change everything.
Recent meetings
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