How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Brann to win 38%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even on paper. Both teams are expected to score just over a goal each, with Brann at 1.4 and PAOK at 1.3. The numbers are almost identical, so the match could be tight, but the small edge in the figures gives Brann a slight advantage, especially playing at home.
Looking at recent form, Brann have been steadier. In their last five league outings they have won three, drawn one and lost one. PAOK, on the other hand, have struggled, losing three of their last five games and coming into this tie on three straight defeats. Those results suggest Brann have the momentum while PAOK are trying to stop a run of losses.
Our pick is Brann to win. We see them as the stronger side in the numbers and we give them a 39 % chance of coming out on top. The price on offer is 2.80, which is longer than what we think the game is worth, so it makes the selection attractive. Backing Brann for a win feels like the cleaner option compared with looking for a bigger payout elsewhere.
The pick could go wrong if PAOK find a way to snap their losing streak quickly and tighten up defensively. A single goal from them would be enough to turn the result. We still feel fairly confident in Brann, but we know the margin is slim, so the view is held with moderate conviction.
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