How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Drita to win 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Drita and 1.0 from Inter Club d'Escaldes, so Drita come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Drita come into this on four straight defeats. Inter Club d'Escaldes come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Drita to win. Drita are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.0), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.65, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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