What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Lincoln Red Imps FC and 1.1 from Larne, so Lincoln Red Imps FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Larne come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Lincoln Red Imps FC to win. Lincoln Red Imps FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.1), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.47, which works out at about 40 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Larne a draw or better. We only make this about 47%, so it's far from a lock.
