How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Lincoln Red Imps FC to win 45%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Lincoln Red Imps FC and 1.1 from Larne, so Lincoln Red Imps FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Lincoln Red Imps FC to win. Lincoln Red Imps FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.1), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.04, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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