How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Dunajska Streda and 1.3 from Twente, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Dunajska Streda come into this on three straight defeats. Twente come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Twente to win. Twente shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.3), and we make them about 40% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Dunajska Streda to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 40%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
