How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 4.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Flora Tallinn and 1.5 from Inter Club d'Escaldes, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Inter Club d'Escaldes come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Inter Club d'Escaldes to win. Inter Club d'Escaldes shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.5), and we make them about 40% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 4.20, which works out at about 24 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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