Qarabag v Dynamo Kyiv: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.0 goals from Qarabag and 1.3 from Dynamo Kyiv, so Qarabag come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Qarabag come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Qarabag to win. Qarabag are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.3), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.92, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.