How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Qarabag and 1.3 from Dynamo Kyiv, so Qarabag come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Qarabag come into this on three straight defeats. Dynamo Kyiv come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Qarabag to win. Qarabag are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.3), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.92, which works out at about 52 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Dynamo Kyiv to spoil this. We only make this about 56%, so it's far from a lock.
