What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from FC Lugano and 1.6 from Maccabi Tel Aviv, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Maccabi Tel Aviv come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv to win. Maccabi Tel Aviv shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.6), and we make them about 41% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.52, which works out at about 28 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for FC Lugano to spoil this. We only make this about 41%, so it's far from a lock.
