What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from FC ST. Gallen and 2.1 from FC Nordsjaelland, so FC Nordsjaelland come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FC Nordsjaelland to win. FC Nordsjaelland shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-2.1), and we make them about 63% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.54, which works out at about 39 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
FC ST. Gallen only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. At around 63% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
