How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
FC ST. Gallen and Sheriff Tiraspol meet in the UEFA Conference League. We think FC ST. Gallen are the stronger side here, clearly so. The gap between them is not huge, but it is there. This should be an open game with chances at both ends.
We have looked at the teams' recent league games. FC ST. Gallen have won one, drawn two and lost two of their last five at home. Sheriff Tiraspol have lost all five of their last away games. This pattern suggests Sheriff Tiraspol are struggling, especially on the road.
Our pick is for FC ST. Gallen to win. We think they are about 58% to come out on top. We like this pick because FC ST. Gallen are stronger on the numbers. The price looks a bit short to us, but we still think taking them to win is the cleaner play.
We are not saying this is a sure thing, but we do think FC ST. Gallen have the edge. For this to go wrong, Sheriff Tiraspol would need to turn their recent form around quickly. We think that is possible, but not likely. We hold our view fairly strongly, and we think FC ST. Gallen will come out on top.
Recent results
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