What to expect
We expect about 0.6 goals from Getafe and 1.5 from Brighton, so Brighton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Brighton to win. Brighton shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-1.5), and we make them about 60% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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