How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Atalanta to win 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks like a clear one-sided affair. The numbers give Hapoel Tel Aviv about one goal and Atalanta about two. That gap shows Atalanta are the stronger side. With a total of just under three goals expected, the match should stay fairly tight and not turn into a goal-fest.
Recent form gives a mixed picture. Atalanta have only won two of their last five league games, drawn two and lost one, whether at home or away. There is no direct history between the clubs in the facts we have, so we can only rely on the current goal expectations and the recent results. The pattern suggests Atalanta can pick up points even when they are not firing on all cylinders, while Hapoel Tel Aviv are likely to struggle to score.
Our pick is Atalanta to win. We see them as about a 70 % chance of coming out on top. The price of 1.57 is longer than what we think the game deserves, which makes the bet look attractive. Backing Atalanta outright is the simplest way to follow the numbers.
For the pick to go wrong, Hapoel would need to score at least two goals and keep Atalanta to a single strike, or the match would have to end in a draw. That would require a defensive lapse from Atalanta or a surprise burst from Hapoel. We still feel fairly confident in our view and are not heavily worried about a slip-up.
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