What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Hapoel Tel Aviv FC and 2.0 from Atalanta, so Atalanta come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Atalanta to win. Atalanta shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.0), and we make them about 70% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Hapoel Tel Aviv FC a draw or better. We make it about 70%: a lean, not a lock.
