Hibernian v Gent: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Gent to win 40%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

The game looks very even. Both sides are expected to score around one and a half goals, so the total should be just over three. There is almost nothing separating them on those numbers, which points to an open match with chances at both ends. Neither team looks clearly stronger, so we can expect a balanced contest.

Looking back, Hibernian have struggled at home and away in their last five league games, with only one win, two draws and two defeats. Gent have been a little steadier, picking up two wins, one draw and two losses in the same span. The recent form suggests Gent have a slight edge, especially when they travel. The pattern hints that Gent are more likely to take the points away from Scotland.

Our pick is Gent to win. We see them as the better bet on the road and the price of 2.64 is longer than our own reading of the game, which is why we like it. We think Gent have about a 42 % chance of coming out on top, and the odds make the selection attractive.

For this to go wrong Gent would need to be shut out or concede early and lose focus. A tight defensive display from Hibernian could also keep the game level. Our view is fairly strong, but we know the match is close, so a single mistake could swing the result.