HNK Hajduk Split v FK Zalgiris Vilnius: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 4.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from HNK Hajduk Split and 0.8 from FK Zalgiris Vilnius, so HNK Hajduk Split come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: HNK Hajduk Split to win. HNK Hajduk Split are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.8), and we make them about 49% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.