How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made HNK Hajduk Split to win 39%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from HNK Hajduk Split and 0.9 from Raków Częstochowa, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Raków Częstochowa come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: HNK Hajduk Split to win. HNK Hajduk Split are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.0-0.9), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.06, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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