How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made HNK Rijeka to win 40%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even but the numbers give HNK Rijeka a slight edge. We expect about 1.5 goals from Rijeka and 1.2 from Midtjylland, so the match should have just under three goals in total. It does not look like a defensive slog, but neither does it promise a goal-fest. Both sides have shown they can score and also concede, so the contest should stay open until the end.
Rijeka have struggled a bit at home and away lately, with only one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five league games. Midtjylland come in on the back of two straight wins, though they have also recorded two losses and a draw in their previous five outings. The recent form suggests Midtjylland have a bit of momentum, but Rijeka’s overall record is not far off, leaving the tie fairly balanced.
We pick HNK Rijeka to win. The numbers put them ahead and we give them a 42 % chance of taking all three points. The price of 3.13 is longer than what we think the game is worth, which makes the pick attractive. It feels like a cleaner way to back the stronger side rather than looking for a higher payout elsewhere.
The pick could go wrong if Midtjylland keep their winning streak alive and score early, forcing Rijeka to chase the game. A tight defensive display from either side could also keep the score level. Our view is moderate – we see a decent chance for Rijeka but know the outcome is far from certain.
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